It won't take a catastrophic event. It will take one democrat along with a few Rinos. The SCOTUS could put an end to this BS, but it remains to be seen if they will.
One Democrat and a few Rhinos???
The house has passed a couple minor gun bills - Schumer has yet to even put them on the Senate Agenda.
Senate is tied - 50/50 with V.P Harris as the tiebreaker.
With the filibuster/majority - You will need every Democrat and 10 Republicans to support any gun legislation. (Background checks/gun show loophole - maybe, but I doubt it. "Banning handguns: - no way - that wouldn't even get thru the House.) Democrats the gun control crowd probably doesn't have - Manchin, Tester, Sinema.....maybe a couple others that are low key/non-vocal on the issue. Without those 3, you now need 13 Republicans. I don't see any Gun control legislation getting thru congress at this point - with those numbers.
Additionally - Biden's capitol is already been spent with covid relief. He also has infrastructure he/they are trying to pass as priority. If he/they even get to guns - there will be no political capitol left.
Scenario 2 -
Democrats blow up the filibuster/majorities for ANY legislation. I don't think they have Manchin, Tester, or Sinema on board for anything even close to a handgun band. It would not even get to Harris for the tie-breaking vote. How many "Rhinos" do you realistically think will vote for any type of gun ban? Not trying to be a smart*ss here - but name the Rhinos you think would go for that. Romney? (I doubt it) Who else?
Fast-forward to 2022 election -
It is questionable if the Democrats will even keep the House majority/control. Even if they do, the margin will surely be even more narrow than it is now. There is a slight possibility of the Democrats increasing their majority in the Senate - but I don't think they increase it by 4 extremely progressive Democrats.
Again - watch what they do, and actually have the power to do - not the Rhetoric they talk. We are still a center right country and congress on both teams want to get re-elected.
Local State legislation is different.
The key is contacting/writing your Senators and Congress people (Federal and local levels) in support of 2A rights. Posting reactionary rhetoric from the other side on gun forums is fine - but writing/emailing your representatives is probably much more effective.
One other note - the extreme increase in Black/Democratic voters in buying guns was not because they loved Trump or their fear that "Jews would replace them." Don't underestimate the increasing 2A support on the Left.