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Can we trust the Experts?

^ That requires objective qualification, though, correct?

Well, getting a Ph.D. or M.D. or "Professor of" or other such additions after one's name - that *_also_* requires quantifiable qualification.

Unless someone is given an "honorary degree," none of those distinctions are conferred willy-nilly, and they do attest to a person's level of expertise in their select field of study, won through countless hours of study, testing, defense of their views versus a panel of other experts in their very field, and oftentimes a lifetime of required continual practice.

To add, it's my personal belief that we've come to a weird inflection point in our society/culture. We are often fond of saying that "back in the day," so-and-so or such-and-such. Back in the day, we respected our doctors. We respected our nuclear physicists. We respected our astronauts and the countless support staff which made their missions possible.

Today, it's almost fashionable to be anti-intellectual.

I don't think that this is right.

To-wit: even in our hobby/sport here, are we not driven by science and measurements? By quantifiable results? By our own SMEs who have based their teachings and advice on their own hard-won life-experiences and..... studies (does West Point or Annapolis not count? do they not reference Sun Tzu or Musashi or study history?).

I don't agree that science is the enemy in the same way that I don't believe that religion or patriotism or tribalism is the enemy.

I think that science merely shows us what is known *_in the moment._* - and itself is only ever capable of proving itself wrong. I think it is much more important that we critically *_think_* about the "science" that we are presented with, to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the arguments which it presents, so that we can make informed decisions.

Blame not the scientist nor science.

Blame those who are spinning things for their own gain: be it science, or history, or even your feelings.
Whoa there, that is my kind of talking.
For starters I have come to believe that science, philosophy and religion have things in common. More impotantly they compliment each other. I do not feel as though it is one or the other, but both.
As for Sun Tzu and to a larger part the ancient Asian ways, I am onboard with that as well. Again it is not this or modern medicine or principals, but both.
The biggest problem with modern science and medicine in my opinion is, that it wants right and wrong. Black and white. If Youngs experiment does not show that at some point that thought process breaks down and keeps you from the truth or ultimate goal, then I do not know what does.
 
I agree, but nonetheless, that is their aim.



I see it differently - what I countered was your generalization that scientists, and I quote:



^ This, to me, suggests that they are imposing their will on someone else - and any of the individuals above can do so, either by their profession or outside of such.

A politically driven prosecutor can press charges even against a righteous defender.

An architect can refuse your hire because he wishes only to take "Green" commissions.

A roofer? Maybe he just decides to charge you more than another customer simply because he doesn't like the flags you fly on your property or your yard signs.

Scientists aren't the only ones who can belittle or deceive or manipulate - and science in and of itself is not the problem, like politics or religion.

There are religious leaders that do not seek to impose their beliefs on others.

There are politicians who do not spread lies to accomplish their goals.

Scientists are no different. There are those who are good, and those who are not so.
Sure, but the point of my original statement was that scientists inject their importantness and "Expertise" on every other field, related or not. A roofer doesn't go on the TV and proselytize about string theory or wealth inequity. Tenured physics professors go on TV and proselytize about climate change though even when their field of expertise is string theory.
 
The biggest problem with modern science and medicine in my opinion is, that it wants right and wrong. Black and white.

Agreed.

I think that as we accrue knowledge and "advancements," we tend to start to suffer in our ability to deal with uncertainty and the unknown.

It's sad, because there's so much wonder out there, so much that we don't know.

One of the things that the pandemic demonstrated to me was just how little we as a society is able to tolerate uncertainty. We want things to be this or that, we crave certainty - we insist on it. We've lost the flexibility to be able to not judge a person who is honestly saying "I don't know."

Sure, but the point of my original statement was that scientists inject their importantness and "Expertise" on every other field, related or not. A roofer doesn't go on the TV and proselytize about string theory or wealth inequity. Tenured physics professors go on TV and proselytize about climate change though even when their field of expertise is string theory.

This, I do agree with.

I think it's harder for the roofer to get on TV....well, unless he's done a heck of a poor (or some crazy awesome) job. :ROFLMAO:

You bring up a very good point: we as consumers of media need to understand better the difference between expert opinions that really matter, versus opinions given by someone who is an expert at something - and that "something" may not even carry any relevance.

In going back to "science," the thing that folks should realize is that the media and our politicians have weaponized the word and concept for their own gains, be it for power/influence or for financial gain. There's differences between taking an excerpt from a published, peer-reviewed paper versus off of a pre-print server whose existence is to help authors flush out problems with their line of thinking before the paper is even submitted to a journal for review. There's a difference in a paper that's been published by one journal versus another - the quality of the journal, for example. There's even the academic and professional standing of that scientist or group of scientists - and here, we also need to realize that the suggestion that thoughts are "fringe" or "does not align with current understanding" doesn't mean that it is without merit, for all that science can ever do is to prove itself wrong, and that we should humbly remember that many groundbreaking advances originated with a "that can't be."

I know that these aren't necessarily easy concepts to understand, so I'll put this in "gun terms," since we're all in this community. :)

Robert Vogel favors dry-fire and openly says that he puts in twice as many dry-fire presses as he live-fires at a match, specifically, he says, to eliminate any bad habits he may have picked up under the stresses of world-class level competition. Ken Hackathorn, on the other hand, suggests that dry-fire practice is most beneficial to beginner shooters - and that as shooters advance, it becomes less so.

Travis Haley suggests that airsoft cross-training can be very beneficial for shooters. Vogel sees no possible advantage that airsoft can offer.

John "Chappy" Chapman and Varg Freeborn favor a "fighting stance" even when shooting firearms. John "Shrek" McPhee favors a more balanced "athletic" stance, instead.

Are any of these individuals -undeniably experts in this industry/hobby- any more or less wrong/right than the other?

Just because there's "expert advice" on the table doesn't mean that we should all consume such advice thoughtlessly. As @Bassbob , myself, and others have noted, take care to actually look and see who's doing the talking. Just because an advice comes from "experts" doesn't make it good - or bad - in and of itself.
 
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^ That requires objective qualification, though, correct?

Well, getting a Ph.D. or M.D. or "Professor of" or other such additions after one's name - that *_also_* requires quantifiable qualification.

Unless someone is given an "honorary degree," none of those distinctions are conferred willy-nilly, and they do attest to a person's level of expertise in their select field of study, won through countless hours of study, testing, defense of their views versus a panel of other experts in their very field, and oftentimes a lifetime of required continual practice.

To add, it's my personal belief that we've come to a weird inflection point in our society/culture. We are often fond of saying that "back in the day," so-and-so or such-and-such. Back in the day, we respected our doctors. We respected our nuclear physicists. We respected our astronauts and the countless support staff which made their missions possible.

Today, it's almost fashionable to be anti-intellectual.

I don't think that this is right.

To-wit: even in our hobby/sport here, are we not driven by science and measurements? By quantifiable results? By our own SMEs who have based their teachings and advice on their own hard-won life-experiences and..... studies (does West Point or Annapolis not count? do they not reference Sun Tzu or Musashi or study history?).

I don't agree that science is the enemy in the same way that I don't believe that religion or patriotism or tribalism is the enemy.

I think that science merely shows us what is known *_in the moment._* - and itself is only ever capable of proving itself wrong. I think it is much more important that we critically *_think_* about the "science" that we are presented with, to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the arguments which it presents, so that we can make informed decisions.

Blame not the scientist nor science.

Blame those who are spinning things for their own gain: be it science, or history, or even your feelings.
May or not pertain to the exact topic, but the disussion of experts/know-it-alls reminded me of something. Many, many, many yrs ago, in another life, I was an instructor (USN), and taught reservists. Had a two week class on-site consisting mostly of mid-level/senior officers. In their day jobs they were corporate attorneys and upper-level white collar types. A lot (not all) of them were SIP's (Self-appointed Important People), and thought their crap didn't stink. Standing at the podium one afternoon I casually mentioned that I have a PHD. It got real quiet (which was my intent), and I was asked what my PHD was in. I matter-of-factly replied....it's my Post Hole Digger, and it's in my shed. They didn't know how to react to that. Class went well for the remainder of the course.
 
I'm a few days behind on my reading, so I only came upon this one today, from FEE.org -


Everyone who knows me knows that I love science-fiction. :) I've always believed that, much like the progression from magic to rationality, science-fiction is only that until it manifests in our lives. I've loved Star Trek since I came to America in the early 80s: I spent many weekday afternoons and weekend mornings watching those reruns of the classics on the old Zenith B/W that we got as a pass-me-down from my uncle, who came to the US to pursue his Ph.D.

Weiss's article above reminds me why the made the character of Mr. Spock half-Vulcan, half-human, and why there were so many moments in both the canonical and reboots where his humanity -his morals and ethics- led him to do what was right, versus what logic and science otherwise dictated.
 
I'm a few days behind on my reading, so I only came upon this one today, from FEE.org -


Everyone who knows me knows that I love science-fiction. :) I've always believed that, much like the progression from magic to rationality, science-fiction is only that until it manifests in our lives. I've loved Star Trek since I came to America in the early 80s: I spent many weekday afternoons and weekend mornings watching those reruns of the classics on the old Zenith B/W that we got as a pass-me-down from my uncle, who came to the US to pursue his Ph.D.

Weiss's article above reminds me why the made the character of Mr. Spock half-Vulcan, half-human, and why there were so many moments in both the canonical and reboots where his humanity -his morals and ethics- led him to do what was right, versus what logic and science otherwise dictated.
A commonly uttered phrase in this house is " It's only science fiction until it isn't". My wife and I are both sci-fi geeks.
 
Trust the science, trust the experts? Science and so called experts declared the Earth was flat at one time not that long ago for one. Supposedly everything revolved around the Earth for another example. Then, for another, many calamities, disasters and senseless wars were also started by science and supposed experts.... like many of the current ones. So, um, no, not ever completely.
 

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I remember back in the 1970s, when we were CONTINUALLY told by ALL the experts, that there was a coming Ice Age. I recently found a video on Youtube, narrated by Leonard Nimoy, which showed all of the devastation coming to the earth due to the coming Ice Age.

The experts then quietly changed their pronouncement to Global Warming.

Now it is Climate Change, a meaningless phrase which can be applied to literally anything. And they ARE applying it to literally anything and everything.
 
Ashamed they left out Nicolaus Copernicus. While his book was not banned it had to be "amended". The position of the Church was that heliocentrism is fine "as a pure mathematical theory", but at the same time discussion of its relation to theology was explicitly banned.
 
I remember back in the 1970s, when we were CONTINUALLY told by ALL the experts, that there was a coming Ice Age. I recently found a video on Youtube, narrated by Leonard Nimoy, which showed all of the devastation coming to the earth due to the coming Ice Age.

The experts then quietly changed their pronouncement to Global Warming.

Now it is Climate Change, a meaningless phrase which can be applied to literally anything. And they ARE applying it to literally anything and everything.
Due to 3 recurring facets of the earth's rotation, wobble and magnetic poles scientists have long been able to identify and date prior ace ages, of which there were many more than previously thought. They can also reasonably predict future ice ages. The conclusion I read in a science book written early this century was " We are currently enjoying a very slight global warming as we race inevitably towards the next ice age".
 
Very interesting article on who the experts are in gun control.

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I remember back in the 1970s, when we were CONTINUALLY told by ALL the experts, that there was a coming Ice Age. I recently found a video on Youtube, narrated by Leonard Nimoy, which showed all of the devastation coming to the earth due to the coming Ice Age.

The experts then quietly changed their pronouncement to Global Warming.

Now it is Climate Change, a meaningless phrase which can be applied to literally anything. And they ARE applying it to literally anything and everything.
The “coming ice age” thing from the 70s was driven by two underlying phenomena: 1) the credulity of that decade (ESP, bigfoot, alien abductions, all kinds of that stuff; together with movies/media portraying a darker side of society that sorta promoted a hopeless/pointless feeling about life) coupled with 2) a specific fear of Nuclear Winter that was just BOUND to happen soon…

we go thru this end-of-the-world negative swing every 3-4 generations or decades or whatever. And “experts” are only human and as vulnerable as anybody to pervasive societal trends - face it; it’s hard to escape.
Social media accelerates social trends - that’s something we’ve absolutely got to learn to deal with soon, imho. The global warming crowd has a promotional head start, the masses provide the ‘herd’ for the ‘mentality’.

Fact checking? I suspect it’s mostly just go online and search til you find what supports your side or what you’re seeking. Basically an active form of Confirmation Bias.
 
The “coming ice age” thing from the 70s was driven by two underlying phenomena: 1) the credulity of that decade (ESP, bigfoot, alien abductions, all kinds of that stuff; together with movies/media portraying a darker side of society that sorta promoted a hopeless/pointless feeling about life) coupled with 2) a specific fear of Nuclear Winter that was just BOUND to happen soon…

we go thru this end-of-the-world negative swing every 3-4 generations or decades or whatever. And “experts” are only human and as vulnerable as anybody to pervasive societal trends - face it; it’s hard to escape.
Social media accelerates social trends - that’s something we’ve absolutely got to learn to deal with soon, imho. The global warming crowd has a promotional head start, the masses provide the ‘herd’ for the ‘mentality’.

Fact checking? I suspect it’s mostly just go online and search til you find what supports your side or what you’re seeking. Basically an active form of Confirmation Bias.
All the Irwin Allen types out in Hollywood love making movies about natural phenomena that threatens us with certain extinction. No matter how stupid or unlikely these movie themes are people believe them. Just ask Orson Wells!
 
Social media accelerates social trends - that’s something we’ve absolutely got to learn to deal with soon, imho. The global warming crowd has a promotional head start, the masses provide the ‘herd’ for the ‘mentality’.

Fact checking? I suspect it’s mostly just go online and search til you find what supports your side or what you’re seeking. Basically an active form of Confirmation Bias.

and @Jimbo 's post -

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^ Let's not forget what they said about the printing press, when that first came about. ;)

Indeed, as @TidalWave wrote, I think we just need to catch-up with what social media means. It took us time to realize not everything that's in-print is necessarily true. Then that happened with what we heard on the radio. Then with what we saw on TV.
 
There is no such thing being an expert on anything, there is always something new to learn as things change.
BAZINGA! The joke's on the "so-called" expert. Just ask all the Covid experts out there that said everyone just stay home for 2 weeks ... 18 months ago!

I love my PCP, he's no expert. Whenever I ask him medical advice about what is the right treatment for anything, he always answers, "Well I'm not sure!" He then proceeds to tell me all the relevant facts and studies and what has changed from what we thought before. So I said to him one day, "You seem more like a statistician than a doctor." He laughed ... and agreed. He can only rely on what is published, changed and republished, etc. in the ever changing medical world. And like he always says, it will be different tomorrow.
 
^ Exactly - science by definition can only ever prove itself wrong: we only know what we know today, and that could well change by tomorrow.

Towards this, however, I think that the general public also needs to understand -just as you do and as you so perfectly illustrated in your example with your physician, @Bear007- that tings can and will change, and that even though we may agree with what those experts have said, based on their interpretation of the evidence they have been privy to (and also unfortunately also often as based on their own personal beliefs and biases), we may well disagree, some time later.

The ability to accept uncertainty and to adapt plans for varied outcomes is a crucial part to resiliency.
 
^ The fact that so many now no longer *read* is something that I find to be very disheartening.

But that said, I think my own personal biases and "oldthink" makes itself known with this lamentation, too. :p My daughter (and even my wife) are quick to point out to me that many books are available in electronic format, now, and that just because someone has their face buried in a laptop, tablet, or even cell-phone necessarily means that they're doom-scrolling news feeds or social media.

Also, I think that those of us who got caught in this transition period between the old and the new have in some ways failed to help the next generation understand how to accomplish their research, in order to better formulate their own opinions.

The undergraduate student (who is now at Yale for graduate schooling) in my lab came in from his high-level research course one day and expressed his surprise to me that when the professor asked how many in his class of a dozen or so had read any primary sources within the last year, the only two raised their hands. When asked if anyone had read more than 10, only one (my student) hand remained.

Those who are educating our youth - do better.
 
I have a friend that taught a college freshman level US History class. He listed several books on his syllabus and his students complained that none of them were on CDs. Students also can use ReadAloud which is a text-to-speech app which can read aloud web pages, news, documents, e-books or your own custom contents so the kids don't have to. So kids have calculators so they don't need to learn simple math and kids that use text-to-speech apps don't have to learn to read. What can go wrong?

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