Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

[Hammer67]

Kinda hard to believe there's a drop when local TV reported the 393rd homicide in Memphis this year just a few hours ago.

"There are lies, damned lies and statistics" - Mark Twain

That's kind of like confusing weather and climate. Of course there are still particular parts of the country (cities, specifically) where violent crime is rampant. The stats look at the big picture, nation-wide trend over decades, which doesn't reflect what is going on in the moment in a place like Memphis.

The FBI has already been caught via email and sunshine laws doctoring or omitting stats to suit a particular ideology. Not a specific candidate, but sure as hell a specific group of politicians.

No doubt. But I don't think that means they are just sitting around doctoring everything. And, as shown above, the trend spans multiple presidencies of both parties over the last 30 years, and the trend being reported has been largely the same - how do you square that with doctoring data to favor a "specific group of politicians?"

I understand people have strong opinions on the topic, and I also understand that it is a popular outlook these days to believe that everything is going to hell in a handbasket, and that America is becoming a violent cesspool. But let's also acknowledge that perpetuating that perception doesn't just serve one party, it can serve both parties and their agendas of making the other look bad.

Let's also acknowledge that perception, belief and reality do not always coincide. Just because we believe something, or have been led/encouraged to believe something, doesn't make it true. If we want to be conspiratorial about it, then what if, for example, it isn't a matter of just one side manipulating data on this topic for its own self-serving ends, but elements of both sides that have a vested interest in cultivating a mentality of fear, anger and mistrust amongst all of us? What if the 24/7 media cycle focuses inordinately on reporting terrible things, and convincing us that violent crime is everywhere and that we should all be afraid? I can see how that's a convenient narrative for both parties, but then again, I don't belong to, or give a **** about, either party , so I'm not looking at it through the partisan lens.

Again - if people have real historical data that counters this reported trend, I'd honestly love to see it. But otherwise, it's just opinions and beliefs with no real data to support it.

 

[Hammer67]

I agree with you that violent crime is trending downward overall when looking at bjs and fbi stats. The absolute numbers for incidents/capita for those two datasets differ, however, by ~4-fold. Regardless, the trend is similar. What trends don’t capture are the local events, ie; increases in cities like NYC, Memphis, Chicago etc.
When compared to the early ‘90s the violent crime in NYC, for example, was unimaginably high by today’s standards. Over time it decreased to very low levels and stayed there. But now that it is creeping back up (not near the ‘90s levels) the “felt impact” is much greater because it was so low for so long.

Yeah, and again, this is big-picture, nationwide data over the course of decades. Specific cities over shorter periods of time can definitely have data specific to those locales that is not in line with the nationwide trend and may completely contradict what has been happening nationally.

 

[somorris]

It would be interesting to see a graph showing private ownership of firearms, the increase in states allowing concealed carry, constitional carry, etc. versus the decline in homicides. According to what I have seen from people like John Lott, there are huge numbers of violent assaults that are prevented by honest, law abiding folks with handguns. I don’t think the decline is just because people getting nicer.