SHTF Scenario Definition

[10mmLife]

Despite the national political scene and recent happenings in VA, I think my wife and I are more likely to face a SHTF scenario as a result of a natural disaster. Some of you are probably pretty young, but when Katrina hit New Orleans it turned into a SHTF situation for a lot of the folks there. Where I live, we can, and likely will, have a significant earthquake one of these days. I can imagine looters having a field day while things are in chaos.

I remember reading about riots in LA where one ethnic group armed themselves and stuck together to protect their homes and businesses. Their properties were left alone.

I have a bug out place available, but practically speaking, it would be impossible to get there after a big disaster. My plan is to just stay here and try to protect my wife and myself as best I can. Thankfully, I am retired now so getting back home when the SHTF isn't much of an issue.

I've seen the potential for a SHTF scenario after hurricane Sandy hit New York I drove to long island to drop off a couple generator's and fuel plus other provisions for some friends who were without power for a couple weeks. All the gas stations were not working because of the lack of power and there was flooding, down power lines, and trees down everywhere. These friends lived in a cul da sac and got together with a few other neighbors to patrol at night. Nothing bad came of it for them but it showed me how quickly things can turn south.

 

[10mmLife]

Read Steven King's "The Stand" for a nice clear picture of what a situation like that could look like.

Also timely, given our current Coronavirus situation...still unclear how much is sensationalism and how much is massively-contagious-disease, but it could possibly get ugly. Get yer Airborne pills and piles of vitamin C!

SHTF scenarios can vary, but I agree with other here, that it's more likely either Natural or Civil. There's not much that one can do to prevent a natural disaster, but you can be prepared as best you can, to "ride it out" and stay safe. For me, I will try to stay "in home" where I have food stores and bottled water. A full house generator will provide my electricity as long as propane can be delivered every couple of days. I do have a portable generator that runs on gas, but that will also depend on the availability of gas to refuel and keep running. My firearms and ammunition are also here, making it more convenient to stay "in home" to confront possible looters. My biggest fear is civil unrest like what is happening in Venezuela. A tyrannical government that abolishes the 2A and starts forced confiscation resulting in a civil insurrection. In this case, I would seek out like minded individuals supporting the 2A and try to form a militia to confront this tyranny.

I would most likely worry about looters myself. Having a generator when no one else has electricity would make someone a real attractive target should the bad guys know maybe by hearing it run. Installing a generator in some kinda muffled enclosure and piping the exhaust outside maybe a thought to consider.

 

[HotRod]

I would most likely worry about looters myself. Having a generator when no one else has electricity would make someone a real attractive target should the bad guys know maybe by hearing it run. Installing a generator in some kinda muffled enclosure and piping the exhaust outside maybe a thought to consider.

I forget how much tougher this gets in an urban setting or neighborhood. I'm out in the sticks, on a well with a BU generator. A lot of my "prep" is just normal life since i'm further away from public utilities we had to have these things as a necessity more than emergency planning.

 

[Mike H.]

Hey gang. Playing some catch-up here now that I'm back from SHOT and saw this thread. We have some pieces on TheArmoryLife.com that I think might be of interest on this subject?

When You Can’t Bug Out - The Armory Life

Disasters can come in all manner of ways; you may not have the time or means to get out, even if you have somewhere to go. Be prepared for that situation.

www.thearmorylife.com

Think You Don’t Need a Generator? - The Armory Life

If you think the power going out is not that big a deal, that means you’ve never lost power at your home. Research your generator options and be prepared.

www.thearmorylife.com

3 Simple Steps for Survival Prepping - The Armory Life

We all know we need to prepare for the unexpected. The concept of prepping for a natural disaster or societal unrest, however, can seem daunting to many.

www.thearmorylife.com

Hope these help!

 

[BET7]

I would most likely worry about looters myself. Having a generator when no one else has electricity would make someone a real attractive target should the bad guys know maybe by hearing it run. Installing a generator in some kinda muffled enclosure and piping the exhaust outside maybe a thought to consider.

It's not only hearing, but seeing lights on when the whole neighborhood is dark is also a sure giveaway. Your not going to get a full house generator into your house. In fact code in my State, is 5' from any window and propane tank 10' from any ignition source. My generator is pretty well insulated and I can hardly hear it in my house, although I had one neighbor who thought he could hear it while it ran. I also keep lights to a minimum and shut blinds etc. to darken the house as much as possible (looking like I'm without power just like them). Portable generators are another option altogether that could be placed inside if properly vented. I'd be careful going this route as many a person has died not properly venting or having it at the opening of the garage with door opened and still the CO penetrated the house and killed the occupants.

 

[Talyn]

IMO there are various levels of SHTF.

Those range from; #1 - a vehicle breakdown in a area w/o easy comms for help, #2 - to a major weather event that affects ones normal living conditions, and #3 - to a serious societal event where that normal every-day routine of society is interrupted.

I normally prepare for #1 with changes based on the seasons.

Examples to the last two are:

#2 - Wildfire events since I live in that part of the country where those commonly occur to various degrees, to harsh winter weather, again because of where I live , and lastly;

With these potentials I have made preps to deal with things on a seasonal basis.

#3 - my best example = what happened across the country on 9/11.

I was several hundred miles from home on 9/11 attending a training event, but compared to the others who had flown to the meeting I had drove my own rig. With the commercial airlines shutdown the others had to scramble to find ways to get home with some having to travel back across the country. They used rental cars and trains to get home.

While I had my own rig with my normal gear I had to think about having enough gas to get home since I didn't know if there would be some panic and run on gas stations. I went out from my session and gassed up immediately, and when we all departed I was lucky that there was no run on gas.

I keep that experience in mind in all my long-distance driving now, especially when I go back east since east of the Mississippi River things are a bit more crazy with the population densities back there.

I'm fortunate to live in an area where there is no need to "Bug-out" since I live in "The Last Best Place".

My .02

 

[BET7]

IMO there are various levels of SHTF.

Those range from; #1 - a vehicle breakdown in a area w/o easy comms for help, #2 - to a major weather event that affects ones normal living conditions, and #3 - to a serious societal event where that normal every-day routine of society is interrupted.

I normally prepare for #1 with changes based on the seasons.

Examples to the last two are:

#2 - Wildfire events since I live in that part of the country where those commonly occur to various degrees, to harsh winter weather, again because of where I live , and lastly;

With these potentials I have made preps to deal with things on a seasonal basis.

#3 - my best example = what happened across the country on 9/11.

I was several hundred miles from home on 9/11 attending a training event, but compared to the others who had flown to the meeting I had drove my own rig. With the commercial airlines shutdown the others had to scramble to find ways to get home with some having to travel back across the country. They used rental cars and trains to get home.

While I had my own rig with my normal gear I had to think about having enough gas to get home since I didn't know if there would be some panic and run on gas stations. I went out from my session and gassed up immediately, and when we all departed I was lucky that there was no run on gas.

I keep that experience in mind in all my long-distance driving now, especially when I go back east since east of the Mississippi River things are a bit more crazy with the population densities back there.

I'm fortunate to live in an area where there is no need to "Bug-out" since I live in "The Last Best Place".

My .02

As you say Talyn, you're already "bugged-out". Montana,is were you go to "bug-out" for most of your listed scenarios. The only one to worry about, is the super volcano eruption under Yellowstone (2/3 of the country will have a major impact from that event, and the aftermath will affect all of us since the "breadbasket" region of the US will be destroyed and covered in ash). But an event like this is the same as an large mile wide asteroid sticking the planet.

 

[10mmLife]

IMO there are various levels of SHTF.

Those range from; #1 - a vehicle breakdown in a area w/o easy comms for help, #2 - to a major weather event that affects ones normal living conditions, and #3 - to a serious societal event where that normal every-day routine of society is interrupted.

I normally prepare for #1 with changes based on the seasons.

Examples to the last two are:

#2 - Wildfire events since I live in that part of the country where those commonly occur to various degrees, to harsh winter weather, again because of where I live , and lastly;

With these potentials I have made preps to deal with things on a seasonal basis.

#3 - my best example = what happened across the country on 9/11.

I was several hundred miles from home on 9/11 attending a training event, but compared to the others who had flown to the meeting I had drove my own rig. With the commercial airlines shutdown the others had to scramble to find ways to get home with some having to travel back across the country. They used rental cars and trains to get home.

While I had my own rig with my normal gear I had to think about having enough gas to get home since I didn't know if there would be some panic and run on gas stations. I went out from my session and gassed up immediately, and when we all departed I was lucky that there was no run on gas.

I keep that experience in mind in all my long-distance driving now, especially when I go back east since east of the Mississippi River things are a bit more crazy with the population densities back there.

I'm fortunate to live in an area where there is no need to "Bug-out" since I live in "The Last Best Place".

My .02

Tayln great breakdown telling how an actual event had changed your thought process of what can happen in the future and to better prepare for such an event.

 

[10mmLife]

As you say Talyn, you're already "bugged-out". Montana,is were you go to "bug-out" for most of your listed scenarios. The only one to worry about, is the super volcano eruption under Yellowstone (2/3 of the country will have a major impact from that event, and the aftermath will affect all of us since the "breadbasket" region of the US will be destroyed and covered in ash). But an event like this is the same as an large mile wide asteroid sticking the planet.

Great point BET7 what if Montana is where SHTF. The other side of the coin is a state that the general population may think is the ideal place to go if all hell breaks loose maybe a tough place to go when everyone is fighting for the door. Living in Massachusetts a large majority of my life I would hear people there say if SHTF they would just up and go to New Hampshire because of how underdeveloped most of the state is minus its southern border. Afternoon work traffic going North to NH turns into gridlock most days I couldn't imagine what a Mass Exodus would look like. Also I think if SHTF would the local population be so inclined to let everyone in.

 

[Talyn]

As you say Talyn, you're already "bugged-out". Montana,is were you go to "bug-out" for most of your listed scenarios. The only one to worry about, is the super volcano eruption under Yellowstone (2/3 of the country will have a major impact from that event, and the aftermath will affect all of us since the "breadbasket" region of the US will be destroyed and covered in ash). But an event like this is the same as an large mile wide asteroid sticking the planet.

No worries here. The Yellowstone "super volcano" is one thing we laugh about here. That whole area is intensively monitored and the experts say we're no where near and events.

I experienced Mt St. Helens eruption in 1980 before & after it went up, and Yellowstone is no-where near that.

We shake our collective heads when folks "out of the area" freak out over a few earthquakes, since the YNP is prone to rumblings, and we get earthquakes elsewhere in the state. That aside the big deal for MT is wildfires.

Folks that live on the Big Island are much more at risk from volcanos than we are in MT.

 

[Talyn]

Great point BET7 what if Montana is where SHTF. The other side of the coin is a state that the general population may think is the ideal place to go if all hell breaks loose maybe a tough place to go when everyone is fighting for the door. Living in Massachusetts a large majority of my life I would hear people there say if SHTF they would just up and go to New Hampshire because of how underdeveloped most of the state is minus its southern border. Afternoon work traffic going North to NH turns into gridlock most days I couldn't imagine what a Mass Exodus would look like. Also I think if SHTF would the local population be so inclined to let everyone in.

IMO folks need to assess their local SHTF potentials and address them accordingly. In the event of a large scale event no one will have enough gas to get to MT. It's funny in movies where folks drive the whole way across the country getting away from something when stuck in traffic the whole way.

 

[Talyn]

Tayln great breakdown telling how an actual event had changed your thought process of what can happen in the future and to better prepare for such an event.

One can only deal with what's within their own control & abilities.

 

[Talyn]

If I'm within ~800 miles of home I can make it back without relying on having to get gas somewhere.

When undertaking long-distance trips I scope out alternative routes to fall back on if something comes up that would result in the interstates getting blocked up with traffic, which they will. But once one gets west of the Mississippi that risk starts diminishing pretty fast outside the known large, but scattered cities.

Once west of the Missouri River at the Nebraska/Iowa state line I'm pretty much free & clear.

 

[Will102882]

Community is going to be required for long term survival. I have a group of men that all live within walking distance of our rally point. We break out the bourbon and strategize on a regular basis.

 

[10mmLife]

I knew it was coming,but not in my lifetime.After much thought.I decided to get to southern Arizona.Set up at home to protect me & the wife as best as possible.Concerned about looters& such.I know that if the authorities both local & state come in force.Partys over.I won't fire on American troops.Nato is another story.There are many setting up for all out conflict,but I have to be real.Those who have never seen something like this are all ready for the shooting to start.Been there done that.It's still beyond belief that we are talking about America.I'll be ready & do what I can

Awesome narrative!

 

[Talyn]

I knew it was coming,but not in my lifetime.After much thought.I decided to get to southern Arizona.Set up at home to protect me & the wife as best as possible.Concerned about looters& such.I know that if the authorities both local & state come in force.Partys over.I won't fire on American troops.Nato is another story.There are many setting up for all out conflict,but I have to be real.Those who have never seen something like this are all ready for the shooting to start.Been there done that.It's still beyond belief that we are talking about America.I'll be ready & do what I can

Leftist Dems won't use NATO troops but freed prison inmates and drug gang members.

 

[10mmLife]

Leftist Dems won't use NATO troops but freed prison inmates and drug gang members.

 

[Bloodknight]

I have made friends over the years,out here in the desert.Who have invited me and my wife to their go to place if things in the country go south.They are rugged folks that have been here for generations that know the land and the desert.It would be a great advantage for me,but I told them I would only do that if I could make a significant contribution to the cause. Food,water,guns ammo.Whatever. I told them never to take an outsider who cannot contribute.Nobody rides for free. They make me feel proud to be an American. It's still there.That thing,whatever it was in the 1700s that got us through.It's still there. The fire is still there. God Bless America

 

[10mmLife]

I have made friends over the years,out here in the desert.Who have invited me and my wife to their go to place if things in the country go south.They are rugged folks that have been here for generations that know the land and the desert.It would be a great advantage for me,but I told them I would only do that if I could make a significant contribution to the cause. Food,water,guns ammo.Whatever. I told them never to take an outsider who cannot contribute.Nobody rides for free. They make me feel proud to be an American. It's still there.That thing,whatever it was in the 1700s that got us through.It's still there. The fire is still there. God Bless America

Dang man! Where's the rest of this book you're writing? This is making for some good reading!

 

[TSiWRX]

I really like threads like these because it's thought-provoking. I honestly don't think I've read one post here that's of-substance (i.e. not a reply-to kind of post ) that I didn't find at least something I liked, agreed with, or, alternatively, something that I just haven't thought of or, perhaps even more importantly, could stand to think-of from a different perspective.

So, everyone - thank you, and keep them coming!


----


For me, the most realistic "SHTF" is one of natural disaster. Where I live in NE-Ohio, our primary risk is tornadoes, and for our family specifically, perhaps also that "once in a lifetime" snow-event (such as the 2011 snowstorm that shut down metro-Chicago - I learned a lot from this XDTalk member's wife's experience: https://www.xdtalk.com/threads/lessons-learned-wife-stranded-for-14-hours.167580/).

To me, this type of scenario also includes what's happening in various areas in China, now, of which perhaps the BBC has most impressed me with the breadth and depth of their coverage:

Wuhan - BBC News

All the latest news about Wuhan from the BBC

www.bbc.com

The lack of food and medical resources is a reality that can follow any such natural disaster or government-imposed quarantine order, and I think it is worth everyone's while to be prepared for this very realistic possibility - if not eventuality - regardless of whether they then decide to go deeper down the "prepping" rabbit hole.

Even in just my relatively short and God-blessed time on this earth of 45 years, I've now lived through several events that, while not disasters, certainly could be called emergencies. It is towards these events that I "prep" the way I do, and more recently, I've found that even in the "polite society" of academia, more and more people are starting to realize the importance of doing *something* to prepare (and not just pay lip service to). To me - and this is a big "selling point" that I use to try to get even people who would not otherwise think of "prepping" to come into the fold - the important thing is to realize that the more we are self-reliant and are able to take stress off the system, the better we will all be, in such an event.

And towards that end, I hope to engender the same desire towards self-reliance in my child: by helping her understand that we are not prepping for these events out of fear. Rather, it is by being prepared (be it for self-defense or for survival - or just more comfortable living - during a natural disaster) that we are able to free ourselves of that fear.

I look back on that Chicago snowstorm thread on XDTalk and am able to say to myself that yes, I've prepared my wife and myself for that possibility.

I look at the news coming out of the BBC about Wuhan and other Chinese cities under quarantine, and again, I can say that we are ready for that, too.

I look at this thread so far, and it shows me what I haven't thought of - and it gives me direction for the future.