Will it happen to any one individual XD/XDm that utilizes this design?
Not necessarily.
*_CAN_* it happen? Definitely.
The problem is that there's no real way to say, without pulling the pin and inspecting it for issues ( at which point we should really install only a new, un-used pin in its place, if we're playing this by-Hoyle
).
And if it does fail, there's no telling if that particular instance of failure will result in a catastrophic shut-down (by that I mean that you'll have to come off the line, tear-down that area, and remediate), or if the gun will actually still continue to function as if nothing is awry. There's a number of documented cases of failures on XDTalk, with both results playing out.
This, specifically, was one which I remember:
www.xdtalk.com
^ Note the use of an aftermarket pin, with this particular thread's OP.
Myself?
If you're a detailed reader of the referenced thread cited above, you'll see that I had, in that thread, in-turn referenced to an August 2014 post I'd made on that same Forum. In that post, I noted that I replaced that pin with the PRP one on my XDm9 4.5-inch at around 18K rounds. I did the same with my carry 3.8 Compact at 8.5K rounds.
Both looked OK at the time of their change-out.
The 4.5-inch's was slightly bent, but there were no visible cracks to the naked eye - and I dry-fired that thing *
a lot*, probably easily twice what I'd live-fired by then, so I'd conservatively say another 30K more times that the striker had been dropped?
Nothing was visibly wrong with the 3.8 Compact's.
The replacement took place at around 1 and 1/2 years of ownership of each of the guns. My 3.8 Compact was purchased new, while my 4.5-inch was bought from a friend second-hand, and he reported <700 rounds on it.
^ All of that was in that reference post.
Fast forward to today -
The 4.5-inch is now easily over 50K live-fire. I've pulled the pin a few times for cleanings during that span, but the gun certainly hasn't had any problems. And like I noted in that old post, because it's just my range-toy (I have another copy that I've vetted, reserved for HD use), I've re-used the PRP pin, and to-date, it hasn't been an issue.
I also have a dedicated range/training XDm9 3.8 Compact which also uses the PRP roll pin. It currently has approx. 24K rounds on it (you'll note a much softer round-count, all those years back: yes, I've been using this one a bit, too). No problems.
[
You'll see another post of my on XDTalk, which provides you with an interval between the old referenced post and my current round-counts on both of these guns: https://www.xdtalk.com/threads/firing-retaining-pin-preemptive-upgrade.289188/page-2#post-5123421 , dated May, 2016. ]
I see the PRP or other replacement roll-pin is cheap insurance. And carrying a few around in your range-bag, along with the appropriate punch, is a smart thing, too, if you're going to a big match or an away class.