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Ammo Availability Predictions

Bassbob said:
I wonder if that is due to Covid affecting the overseas plants that manufacture them?

I sure hope ammo prices return to 2019 levels. And waiting until 2024 would really suck. I've been blaming a lot of different things for this current crisis, but here lately, especially after several attempts to buy some 5.56 which was in stock when I began punching in my information, but then was out of stock by the time I hit submit, I have decided the main culprit is the same thing that is really the root of every F'ed up thing in the world. Greed and selfishness. If you are sitting on 6500 rounds of 5.56 and every time it becomes available you buy as much as they will sell you, you are a D-head. Are you waiting on armageddon? The fact is all that ammo isn't getting shot up any time soon and you are not going to be overrun by hordes of mercs. All you are doing is prolonging the price gouging and keeping guys that just want ammo to shoot from being able to get any.


I got piles and piles of .45. Enough that I don't even flinch at the thought of going to the range and dumping 400 rounds in one session. You don't see me buying up every bit of it I can find. I have enough 5.56 to take care of business, but not enough to hit the range with the frequency I need to train with this platform, which is new to me. Yeah it's my own fault. I should have bought an AR much sooner and started stocking up on ammo. I made the same mistake with 9mm. Nevertheless people that already have more than enough ought to sit the F down.

My wife drinks caffeine free diet coke. Right now it's hard to find and we go through no small amount of trouble fairly regularly to find it. When I do find it I don't buy every GD bottle on the shelf. Other people probably need some too.
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From what came across at one manufacturers website: One Mfg. stated they're keeping and using the normally surplus primers for their own newly mfg'd ammo instead of selling primers to reloaders. Suspect rest doing same? Good and not so good of it? Reloaders multiple ammo caliber types aren't being reloaded. Few if anything else but .45ACP are on shelves. Just the mfg. mainstream majority of .45ACP and 9mm? So much for oddball .327 Fed mag or .35 Rem or anything else for that matter? Have only seen one box of 10mm FMJ, no HP's in months! .22's are rarity. On bright side, saw a free rubberband gun. Just pay over priced shipping? Is rubberband shortage next?

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BobM said:
From what came across at one manufacturers website: One Mfg. stated they're keeping and using the normally surplus primers for their own newly mfg'd ammo instead of selling primers to reloaders. Suspect rest doing same? Good and not so good of it? Reloaders multiple ammo caliber types aren't being reloaded. Few if anything else but .45ACP are on shelves. Just the mfg. mainstream majority of .45ACP and 9mm? So much for oddball .327 Fed mag or .35 Rem or anything else for that matter? Have only seen one box of 10mm FMJ, no HP's in months! .22's are rarity. On bright side, saw a free rubberband gun. Just pay over priced shipping? Is rubberband shortage next?

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PSA has been hawking 10mm for a couple weeks now.
 
HansGruber said:
This shortage is slightly worse this time around, it seems. Ammo was usually available, just expensive last time.

Assuming things settle down over the next year—that is, no major events like we saw last summer or on Jan 6—I expect ammo will be regularly on shelves next spring, but prices will still be high (figure 2-3x 2019 prices) until well into 2024...and don’t expect to ever see 2019 prices again. I figure you’re going to end up with, say 9mm at about .25/rd when this is over—probably about a 50% increase all around.
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Ok I came into this shortage thing last. Can anyone tell me, exactly what the alleged cause of the unavailability of everything “firearms” ? Are we saying that it’s due to sales? Only?
 
StillLearning said:
Bulk Ammo has 15,000 9mm FMJ at about 94 crd.
13,000 rds of 9mm SD ammo at about 97 crd to $1.40/rd
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I’m a 57 yr old real stubborn Italian American lol I wouldn’t pay that on principle alone... lol my father if he were here we’d be engineering cheaper ways to make ammo and we’d be making our own. With or without the purchased components lol see in his day they made anything that wasn’t available.. that’s why I became an engineer my whole life growing up was engineering school .. what’s happening is very disturbing to me because my family escaped Italy to be free from Mussolini and Hitler ... and every single building block move that brought them to power has just happens here... and people are in denial... I don’t want to lose this country too to the fascist tyranny that we are letting our government become... evil will propagate that’s what it dose.... but we need to stop it and we aren’t and haven’t done anything...my father and his six brothers came here and once of age joined the war... all faught saw action and lived ... only to die and let the next generations of idiots and children lose it right back.... I worked for the DoD for 40 yr .. this is an attack everything that’s happened since Obama got in .. hey im old lol I’m worried about the kids... it’s not enough to be smart.. there comes a day that a fight is right.. sorry had to get that off of my chest.. and the people here are smart enough to understand
 
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From time to time, in back of mind, am wondering when ammo shortage is going to start making gun manufacturers scream very loudly because lack of ammo sales is effecting their own sales if they aren't quietly screaming already? Eventually, many people will think "Why buy pretty cool guns to find when ammo for them for whatever reason is unavailable?" Awful expensive wallhangers, doorstops and safe queens? Hate thinking about it. Yes, all around ouch!
 
Martino said:
I’m a 57 yr old real stubborn Italian American lol I wouldn’t pay that on principle alone... lol my father if he were here we’d be engineering cheaper ways to make ammo and we’d be making our own. With or without the purchased components lol see in his day they made anything that wasn’t available.. that’s why I became an engineer my whole life growing up was engineering school .. what’s happening is very disturbing to me because my family escaped Italy to be free from Mussolini and Hitler ... and every single building block move that brought them to power has just happens here... and people are in denial... I don’t want to lose this country too to the fascist tyranny that we are letting our government become... evil will propagate that’s what it dose.... but we need to stop it and we aren’t and haven’t done anything...my father and his six brothers came here and once of age joined the war... all faught saw action and lived ... only to die and let the next generations of idiots and children lose it right back.... I worked for the DoD for 40 yr .. this is an attack everything that’s happened since Obama got in .. hey im old lol I’m worried about the kids... it’s not enough to be smart.. there comes a day that a fight is right.. sorry had to get that off of my chest.. and the people here are smart enough to understand
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What does it mean if social distancing hasn’t changed your lifestyle? You’re an Engineer 😏😂👍🏻
 
StillLearning said:
What does it mean if social distancing hasn’t changed your lifestyle? You’re an Engineer 😏😂👍🏻
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That’s great.. and true in most cases, but in my case, lol I was always fighting the other direction meaning I was the guy you’d meet and say He’s an Engineer!? I didn’t act or speak like the others lol .. I used to get snobbed and some tried to play political game’s lol but luckily it was a different time then and I could take them outside and kick the ever lovin **** out of them and problem solved lol... and I had a new friend. Hahah I used to tell them hey! You can take the kid out of South Philly but ya can’t take the South Philly out of the kid...lol I’m an engineer that has a personality and they didn’t know how to take me 🤣🤣🤣
 
Bassbob said:
My wife drinks caffeine free diet coke. Right now it's hard to find and we go through no small amount of trouble fairly regularly to find it. When I do find it I don't buy every GD bottle on the shelf. Other people probably need some too
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Glad I'm not the only one, and that I'm not imagining it. Doc told me last year, "no caffeine, no alcohol", due to an irregular heartbeat (atrial flutter). So...cold turkey, there go my 2 favorite food groups! I try to stick to Propel or Gatorade, but every now and then a fake soda just tastes good!

HansGruber said:
It’s possible that components for the primers itself—copper, and the chemicals to make the priming compound—are bottlenecked, though.
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And that's the crux of it - NOBODY thought this whole lockdown thing through. The entire supply chain is crippled, in every industry - all the way down to where we dig the stuff out of the ground to start processing it. Car parts, firearms parts, food production, packaging production (aluminum cans, for example). It ALL got hammered, and we have to start at the ground up again to get things moving. Once things open up, we won't miraculously have primers, or any other manufactured goods. We might see mines coming back online, producing ore - eventually, as their staffing levels and production levels start to come back up - so that manufacturing can start their processes again and refine the ores into aluminum and steel (once their staffing and production levels start to come back up), so that other industries can start manufacturing their goods again - car parts, aluminum cans, etc. - once their staffing and production numbers start to come back up again.

And ALL of this depends on a) will they be allowed to go back to work?, and b) will they want to go back to work? Just look at schools, and teachers unions - there's no guarantee people will go back to work, just because someone says they can. That's the downside to all this "government stimulus" money - people are getting paid, not to work.

This is not a "flip the switch" reboot. Every day we're shut down, is another month of catch-up. But, people are too nearsighted to see it. Or even grasp the concept. And, it affects every industry on the planet.
 
Where did some of ammo go?
Just with one part of shortage. Not counting preexisting consumers? With over 2.25 million gun sales in just 1st month of 2021, there's usually at least one full 50 round ammo box that goes with gun purchase. Then, figure in a few 50 rnd. boxes shortly after that? Just at 2 million guns sold figure, that's at bare minimum 6 million 50 round boxes of whatever ammo in just one month! The rest, our guessing is as good as any?
 
BobM said:
Where did some of ammo go?
Just with one part of shortage. Not counting preexisting consumers? With over 2.25 million gun sales in just 1st month of 2021, there's usually at least one full 50 round ammo box that goes with gun purchase. Then, figure in a few 50 rnd. boxes shortly after that? Just at 2 million guns sold figure, that's at bare minimum 6 million 50 round boxes of whatever ammo in just one month! The rest, our guessing is as good as any?
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Just saw the stat for January, a record 4.3 million plus background checks sent to the FBI for gun sales.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/aarons...ing-to-fbi-background-checks/?sh=236407ec377a
 
Bassbob said:
I wonder if that is due to Covid affecting the overseas plants that manufacture them?
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A video that was posted on here recently from the President (or CEO?) of Federal Ammo indicates that they only sold primers on the open market when they had excess above what they needed in house. He said that right now, all of their primers are going into making their own ammo, and they simply don't have spare to sell on the open market for reloads to use. I am sure the same is true for other US based manufacturers such as Hornady, or anyone else. Any standalone primer manufactures are doing all they can to meet their commercial customer needs, and there are no primers left for the reloader market.
 
Peglegjoe said:
Glad I'm not the only one, and that I'm not imagining it. Doc told me last year, "no caffeine, no alcohol", due to an irregular heartbeat (atrial flutter). So...cold turkey, there go my 2 favorite food groups! I try to stick to Propel or Gatorade, but every now and then a fake soda just tastes good!


And that's the crux of it - NOBODY thought this whole lockdown thing through. The entire supply chain is crippled, in every industry - all the way down to where we dig the stuff out of the ground to start processing it. Car parts, firearms parts, food production, packaging production (aluminum cans, for example). It ALL got hammered, and we have to start at the ground up again to get things moving. Once things open up, we won't miraculously have primers, or any other manufactured goods. We might see mines coming back online, producing ore - eventually, as their staffing levels and production levels start to come back up - so that manufacturing can start their processes again and refine the ores into aluminum and steel (once their staffing and production levels start to come back up), so that other industries can start manufacturing their goods again - car parts, aluminum cans, etc. - once their staffing and production numbers start to come back up again.

And ALL of this depends on a) will they be allowed to go back to work?, and b) will they want to go back to work? Just look at schools, and teachers unions - there's no guarantee people will go back to work, just because someone says they can. That's the downside to all this "government stimulus" money - people are getting paid, not to work.

This is not a "flip the switch" reboot. Every day we're shut down, is another month of catch-up. But, people are too nearsighted to see it. Or even grasp the concept. And, it affects every industry on the planet.
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The caffeine Free Diet Coke isn't half bad. I'm not sure why she drinks it though. She gave up sugared soda a couple decades ago ( she is and has always been about 5'1" and 100-105 lbs so it wasn't because she was on a diet) but she only gave up caffeinated soda maybe 8 years ago. She drinks strong coffee though so I'm not sure what that's all about.
 
Bassbob said:
The caffeine Free Diet Coke isn't half bad. I'm not sure why she drinks it though. She gave up sugared soda a couple decades ago ( she is and has always been about 5'1" and 100-105 lbs so it wasn't because she was on a diet) but she only gave up caffeinated soda maybe 8 years ago. She drinks strong coffee though so I'm not sure what that's all about.
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Its called “women”
 
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