Regarding skepticism about the Lehigh bullets — you have valid points. Until there are field results and/or professional operators migrate over to them, their value is speculative. They should, however, work as least as well as FMJ does in a given caliber.
The issue with HP bullets is that they have to expand correctly in order to function effectively. If they don’t expand much, then you might have over penetration. If they hit bone, they might fragment and penetration stops. If they expand too much, then you have under penetration and possible jacket/core separation.
Ballistic gel (of several types) can be criticized but it is used extensively to demonstrate the benefits of HP bullets all the time (by manufacturers, individuals, and by government agencies). Why is it suddenly invalid when applied to fluted monolith bullets? I will do a search to see if Paul Harrell ever did a “meat target” test of the Lehigh claims. It would be interesting if he did.
This FBI white paper from 1989 concludes that bullet penetration is the single most important factor in achieving Immediate Incapacitation.
fbi-handgun-ballistics.pdf (gundata.org)
The same white paper says that conventional hollow points only "work" 60 - 70% of the time. The rest of the time, they fail to expand or over-expand and do not perform as intended inside their target. Of course, that statistic could have easily improved in the time since that white paper was written. Nevertheless, it seems well understood that even the best hollow points do not always expand as intended - or possibly over-expand if velocity is higher than the bullet's design parameters.
The XD (and XP) bullets do not rely on expansion to perform as intended. And, they penetrate better than a HP round that did expand as designed.
Regarding ballistic gel:
The reason it is invalid as to the ammo manufacturers’ claims is because they (the manufacturers) are trying to say that the gel is measuring something it isn’t designed to do—that is, damage beyond the permanent cavity (what the bullet actually physically touches).
They claim that there are “pressure waves” that cause a temporary cavity that will rupture tissue, and point to cracking in the gel to prove their point.
The problem is, gel was never designed to measure damage from temporary cavity—only permanent cavity; that which the bullet physically touches and damages. The relatively inelastic nature of ballistic gel (when compared to most living tissue) accentuates the temporary cavity damage; it doesn’t expand rapidly and/or far enough, and cracks.
And the designers of the bullets know this…yet they refuse to acknowledge that niggling little fact.
That’s why, while the tests look neat, they basically don’t give any useful information—if you know what you’re looking at. The designers of the bullets are betting that you don’t, and will accept their word.
(By the bye—don’t just accept my word; read Duncan MacPherson’s work on terminal ballistics and really go down the rabbit hole; also suggest reading some of Gary Robert’s (DocGKR) work on the subject)
As for Paul Harrels’ meat targets; with all due respect, that’s not a scientific test. It looks cool, and the reasoning sounds cool, but they don’t—can’t—give consistent data; they’re anecdotal at best; entertainment more.
Additionally, JHP/expanding bullets have made quantum leaps in reliability since the 1980’s; while flukes happen, I’ve yet to see many tests with modern design JHP’s (Federal’s HST, Winchester Ranger-T, Hornady’s “Critical D…” line, for example) that show a 30-40% failure rate, even when facing barriers. They also tend to punch deep; not the bare minimum 12”.
Remember, when that white paper came out, they were basing their ENTIRE premise on ONE bullet that performed precisely as designed—it penetrated through a hand, arm, laterally across the chest cavity, and ruptured the pericardium; a total of 11+ inches…but stopped just shy of Platt’s heart, allowing him to kill two FBI agents.
One instance. One bullet, chosen for its track record of robust expansion, because penetration wasn’t even on the FBI’s radar at the time…but it became a scapegoat for an utter failure in tactics and, quite honestly, preparation by the agents that day.
So, perhaps we don’t want to put all our eggs in that penetration basket.