Knowing your background in Russian history, I'm curious what your take is on Putin's recent speech justifying entering the separatist regions of Ukraine and, apparently, Ukraine itself. He had a good bit to say about Russian and Ukrainian history.
Really I’m much more interested in Russian history pre summer 1923. You have to figure though, Ukraine is really the birthplace of Russia and until the “ Collapse” of the USSR, it was a Russian province. And The Crimea was the vacation spot of the Tsars.
The USSR never collapsed. They went broke, modified their internal infrastructure and have been biding their time. Putin is KGB and always will be. He has been waiting for the right time to begin re-annexing former Russian satellites. If unchecked he will go after the Baltic states next. If you listen to what he said in his warning to the west about interfering, he has threatened military action the likes of which “ Have never been seen in your history”. It is a subtle threat to use nukes. He knows the Russian military can’t defeat a United EU, NATO, American military action with traditional tactics. Is he willing to actually start a nuclear war if the world checks Russia with military force? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t bet against it.
In the face of unified, western military opposition it is very possible we could see a Russo-Chinese alliance.
It is an extremely difficult situation the west is in now. Putin is confident the Americans won’t respond militarily and even if we did he knows the fractured state of our population would prevent any prolonged engagement. And I believe he is prepared to go to the mat in the event he miscalculated.
My prediction ( and probably the best outcome we could hope for from a human life and financial standpoint) is that Russia takes Ukraine and The Crimea. Overwhelming financial pressure from the west could ( temporarily) halt his future plans.
Would it have happened if the US president was unpredictable and tough on foreign policy? Who knows.